Nov. 21, 2024

No one could have anticipated Hurricane Helene and the water system failure in Asheville and Western North Carolina, and it couldn’t have struck at a worse time for our mountain communities. Based on preliminary estimates, Explore Asheville projects Buncombe County visitor economy may experience a 70% decline in Q4 2024 alone, translating to more than $584 million in lost revenue for restaurants and breweries, lodging, recreation and entertainment companies, retail shops and art galleries, and transportation partners. This matters to our entire community as it translates to lower revenues for local businesses, wages for workers, and tax revenues for municipal partners in a time when peak season generally carries us through to spring.

Even in the face of these unprecedented challenges, we continue to see beacons of hope. Just seven weeks after Helene, the City of Asheville restored potable water—a significant milestone for residents and businesses. Biltmore Estate and the Omni Grove Park Inn are now open to guests, many of our famed restaurants and breweries have reopened their doors to customers, and hotels and inns are open to welcome overnight guests. More than 970 partners have reported reopening their businesses, representing a 37% increase from last week.

Explore Asheville and Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority's role is to support the health of our economy by shining a spotlight on our community's creative and resilient spirit. We are working more closely than ever with partners and collaborating with agencies near and far to help our community come back stronger than ever. Explore Asheville has directed more than $2 million toward recovery aid in our community, including our diamond sponsorship of the sold-out Soulshine concert in Madison Square Garden this Sunday night.

Takeaways from the October board meeting include:

• Finance Committee recommended revisiting a budget amendment at the next board meeting in January 2025;
• October lodging occupancy and demand hit record lows for what is traditionally peak season;
• Damage assessment of community capital project investments and grant fund cycles recalibrated for longer-range planning;
• Marketing strategy encourages visitors to plan their trip with heart this season, building on collaborative promotional and research efforts with Biltmore and Visit NC.

The spirit of holiday travel takes on a deeper meaning this year. While there is still a long road ahead for Western North Carolina, our county is still stunning and standing.

We invite you to join us in amplifying the “Be Part of the Comeback" marketing effort, which celebrates Asheville’s resilience and encourages visitors to plan their return with heart this holiday season. With progress being made every day, now is the time to inspire support for our deeply rooted, creative community. 

Last month, staff presented a revised forecast indicating a $10.1 million deficit in net lodging tax revenue compared to the original budget for fiscal year 2025. After considering new data in collaboration with Tourism Economics, staff updated the forecast to reflect an $11.4 million deficit, a 33% decrease from the original FY25 lodging tax revenue forecast. We believe this significant drop is primarily attributed to FEMA’s delayed payments to lodging properties and disrupted systems caused by power outages.

As directed by the board last month, the staff convened the Finance Committee this month to review information regarding the FY25 budget. After careful consideration, the committee recommended maintaining the current FY25 budget and suggests revisiting potential amendments at the January board meeting—halfway through the fiscal year—when more comprehensive financial reports will be available.

October hotel occupancy was down 19 points from 2023 and 20 points from 2019. Vacation rental occupancy was down 15 points from 2023 and 12 points from 2019.

October hotel demand was down 36% from 2023 and has not been this low since the 2008 recession. Vacation rental demand was down 28% from 2023.

Following Hurricane Helene, Explore Asheville staff collaborated with Magellan Strategy Group to survey and assess all Tourism Product Development Fund (TPDF) and Legacy Investment Fund from Tourism (LIFT) projects, with 35 of 42 applicants responding. The assessment revealed that most projects sustained minimal or no physical damage. The most severely affected projects were those owned by the City of Asheville, including the Riverfront Destination Development (RADTIP), John B. Lewis Soccer Complex, and Asheville Municipal Golf Course. Municipal projects such as parks and ballfields may qualify for FEMA funding to cover repair and replacement costs.

After careful deliberation, the TPDF and LIFT Fund Committees canceled their current grant cycles. The TPDF Committee terminated the current cycle and is planning to reopen in April 2025, while the LIFT Fund Committee opted to postpone its next grant cycle until Spring 2026. These decisions were under consideration with input from City and County municipal partners prior to Helene, and will provide time to better understand community needs post-Hurricane Helene and for revenues to accrue to allow for more strategic and meaningful investments in major capital projects.

The Festivals and Cultural Events Support Fund will reopen in January for events taking place between March and December 2025 that embody the creative spirit of Asheville and Buncombe County. It is recommended that events scheduled before March apply for Explore Asheville’s Event Sponsorship program.

As Asheville emerges from Hurricane Helene's impact, Explore Asheville’s recovery messaging centers on the Always, Asheville storytelling foundation, spotlighting the resiliency, ingenuity, culture of creativity, deep roots, and independent spirit that have always defined our community.

“Be Part of the Comeback” invites visitors to join us in our recovery journey now by experiencing the vibrant businesses and activities that are already open and by participating in our seasonal traditions. Our holiday campaign speaks to the heart as it strategically welcomes visitors from drive and non-stop flight markets who align with Asheville’s core values. Efforts include targeted weekly emails with curated itineraries and social posts amplifying reopenings across different areas of Buncombe County and business categories.

Explore Asheville’s new travel information landing page empowers visitors to easily navigate the region’s recovery and plan their return trip with heart and confidence. This page provides detailed travel routes to the Asheville area and Buncombe County, helps visitors find open places to stay, and allows users to search what businesses are open by category or neighborhood using this new interactive map.

As we launch "Be Part of the Comeback," we invite you to join us in celebrating our community's resilience and spreading the message that Asheville is open and ready to welcome guests back —from downtown's distinctive shops, restaurants, and galleries to the charming communities of Weaverville, Black Mountain, and beyond. As our community's recovery gains momentum daily, we have prepared a comprehensive suite of campaign materials for your use, including professional imagery, branded logos, and video content.

To maximize our collective impact, we encourage you to tag @VisitAsheville and include #BePartoftheComeback and #AlwaysAsheville on social media.

Tourism Economics shared insights on the duration of tourism disruptions after various hurricanes. Visitor spending generally takes 10-27 months to return to baseline after a hurricane. Early recovery campaigns and correcting misperceptions will be vital in shortening this timeline for Buncombe County.

A recent survey by Visit NC, conducted October 14–31, 2024, highlights challenges and opportunities for visitor economy recovery across the state. The likelihood of visiting North Carolina dropped from 31% in August to 27% this October. Among the 47% of respondents unlikely to visit next year, one-third cited concerns about damage from Hurricane Helene, accounting for 15% of all travelers across target markets.

Perceptions of hurricane impact across the state:

• 51% agree that it will be months before the state is ready for visitors
• 50% agree that large areas of the state are without running water
• 43% agree that traveling in the state is impossible because roads are washed out
• 32% agree that travel to the state is unsafe
• 29% agree that the state doesn’t want visitors during the recovery period

Opportunities for positive messaging:

• 48% agree that they would be interested in traveling to the state to support the survival of small businesses
• 36% agree that areas of NC are back to normal after damage from the hurricane
• 32% agree that they would be interested in traveling to volunteer for clean-up efforts

This data highlights the need to address misconceptions while inspiring visitors to return to help our local businesses recover. VisitNC will continue tracking visitor sentiment, travel intentions, and recovery awareness with SMARInsights and MMGY over the next six months to adjust the messaging and return perception closer to reality here in WNC.

While leveraging the $5 million as quickly and effectively as possible, Visit NC is working to revitalize the mountain region’s tourism economy and address misperceptions among travelers about the Piedmont and Coast regions being impacted. As a result, all three regions will experience increased promotion, starting with “Our Best Way to Get Back is for You to Come Back” messaging focused on promoting holiday and winter seasonal travel to the mountain region ahead of Thanksgiving.

MORE INFORMATION & NEXT MEETING OF BCTDA

Find documents from the November 21 board meeting HERE >>

THE NEXT BCTDA BOARD MEETING
Wednesday, January 29 | 9–11 a.m.
Explore Asheville | 27 College Place | Asheville
Details to be posted HERE >>

Delivering Balanced 
& Sustainable Growth

Encouraging Safe & Responsible Travel 

Engaging & Inviting More Diverse Audiences

Promoting & Supporting Asheville's
Creative Spirit